The Strategic Moves of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in the Ukraine Conflict
As the world watches closely, the upcoming meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump has become a focal point for international observers. Experts suggest that Putin holds significant leverage in this encounter, with Russian media celebrating what they perceive as a diplomatic victory over Ukraine. This meeting, scheduled to take place in the coming days, is expected to address the ongoing war in Ukraine, following a recent visit by Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Moscow.
Despite Trump’s claim that the meeting was “highly productive” and noted “great progress made,” no tangible outcomes have been publicly disclosed. The Kremlin has also denied any involvement of Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky in these discussions, raising questions about the inclusivity and transparency of the talks.
A recent report indicated that the U.S. and Russia are exploring a potential deal to freeze the conflict, which would involve Russia retaining control over territories it has seized, including parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea. These areas represent approximately one-fifth of Ukrainian territory. However, the U.S. is working to secure support from both Ukraine and European allies for this proposal.
Trump has not mentioned further sanctions against Russia, despite previously threatening to impose them if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire by his deadline, which expired on the same day as the announcement of the bilateral meeting. In a surprising move, Russia launched 104 drones across Ukraine, including Kyiv, shortly after the meeting announcement, with some successfully bypassing air defenses to cause damage and injuries.
Russia has increased its attacks on Ukraine, often sending more drones in a single night than it did in entire months last year. Despite this, experts believe there is a small chance that Putin might consider a ceasefire to redirect resources towards reconstruction or other global interests. However, the military incentive for Russia to end the war remains low, and negotiations seem to be taken lightly.
Russian Media Celebrates Diplomatic Victory
Russian media has portrayed the meeting as a significant victory, highlighting the exclusion of Ukraine from the discussions and suggesting that Trump has learned his lesson. State-run outlets like Moskovsky Komsomolets ran headlines such as “Putin won,” with political scientists claiming that Putin has gained time before key deadlines. Additionally, Komsomolskaya Pravda suggested that Trump’s primary interests in the conflict are financial gain and personal recognition.
Experts like Julia Davis from the Russian Media Monitor note that Russian state TV is pleased with the exclusion of Ukraine and believes Trump is no longer demanding a ceasefire or seeking concessions from Moscow. Meanwhile, Russian parliamentary official Mikhail Sheremet expressed confidence that the meeting could be historic, potentially shaping new principles of world order.
Feigning Interest in Talks to Please Trump
Dr. Neil Melvin, director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), suggests that Putin is feigning interest in peace talks to keep Trump satisfied while maintaining his war objectives. Melvin argues that Putin may offer something that Trump can highlight, such as a moratorium on long-range strikes, which could benefit Russia. He believes that Putin is playing his cards well, keeping the U.S. engaged in diplomatic games.
Melvin also notes that while the Russian economy is beginning to feel pressure from sanctions, the Kremlin has managed to maintain economic stability. Russia has significantly increased drone and missile production, using these weapons intensively against Ukraine. However, he warns that economic challenges will likely grow in the coming years, potentially affecting the war’s trajectory.
Putin’s Strategic Calculations
Dr. Marina Miron, a war studies expert at King’s College London, highlights that Russia is making battlefield breakthroughs and increasing weapon production, making it less likely for Putin to halt the war. She explains that Trump is unlikely to exert significant pressure on Russia due to concerns about strengthening ties with the Brics group. Trump’s reluctance to impose secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil and gas stems from fears of economic repercussions.
Miron suggests that Putin might seek to end the war to focus on integrating occupied Ukrainian territories into Russian territory. However, she notes that this process requires substantial resources and effort, which Russia currently lacks. Additionally, Putin may want to conclude the war to prevent slipping influence in regions like Azerbaijan, where Turkey is reasserting its position.
Putin’s Awareness of Trump’s Influence
Dr. Melanie Garson, an international security lecturer at University College London, emphasizes that everything is happening on Putin’s terms. She warns that any ceasefire agreement could be used as an opportunity for Russia to regroup and refocus its military efforts. While the Russian economy struggles to adapt to peacetime conditions, the war remains deeply entrenched in its economic model, offering benefits to continue fighting.
Garson also suggests that the increase in Russian attacks could signal an acceptance of upcoming peace talks, with Russia aiming to gain as much as possible before negotiations. She stresses that Putin does not underestimate Trump, recognizing his potential to impact the situation significantly if he decides to fully support Ukraine.