Syria’s Strategic Position in Global Power Rivalries
Syria has emerged as a potential flashpoint in the escalating global power rivalries between the United States, China, and Russia. As the country attempts to rebuild after 14 years of brutal civil war, it finds itself caught in the middle of an East-West confrontation. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December marked a significant shift in Syria’s geopolitical landscape, opening up new opportunities for Western powers to exert influence.
Shifts in Syrian Leadership
Since gaining independence from France after World War II, Syria’s leadership has traditionally resisted alignment with the West. However, under the new government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, Damascus has begun to pivot away from the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” and the Brics plus bloc that includes Russia and China. This realignment has created a window for the West to strengthen its ties with Syria.
Donald Trump and European leaders have lifted many of the sanctions imposed during the Assad era, although this relief comes with implicit conditions that limit Syria’s ability to reestablish ties with Russia, China, or Iran. Trump even met Sharaa in Saudi Arabia in May, marking a significant moment in bilateral relations.
Moscow’s Persistent Interest
Russia has long been involved in Syria, supporting Assad through military intervention. One of the key reasons for this involvement was Russia’s military presence in the country, including its naval base in Tartus. After Assad fled to Moscow, Russia is now focused on maintaining its strategic foothold in Syria. Despite the changes in leadership, the HTS-dominated government is managing relations with Moscow pragmatically.
Last week, Syria’s foreign minister met his Russian counterpart in Moscow, expressing a desire for Russia’s support in the country’s transitional justice process. It remains unclear whether Russia will be allowed to keep its bases in Syria, but Moscow has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Syria’s reconstruction efforts.
China’s Growing Influence
China also offers non-military support to the former regime, which could affect Damascus’s relationship with Beijing. However, China is keen to build influence in post-Ba’ath Syria, particularly given the need for hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild the country after nearly 14 years of conflict.
China’s interest in Syria likely includes securing a stable partner that provides sufficient stability for long-term investment opportunities and potentially integrating Syria into its Belt and Road Initiative. High-level meetings between Chinese and Syrian officials in February and March have signaled Beijing’s intent to engage with the new government.
The Uyghur Issue
The presence of thousands of Uyghur Muslims in Syria is a central concern for China. These individuals, who are part of China’s largest Muslim community, began arriving in Syria during the early stages of the civil war, aligning themselves with jihadist groups. The Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP), an HTS-allied group, has played a significant role in the conflict.
Sharaa views these fighters as loyal allies, and their incorporation into the Syrian army raises concerns for Beijing, especially given the large Uyghur minority in Xinjiang. The situation could impact Sino-Syrian relations, depending on the future status of these militants.
Navigating Great Power Dynamics
Syria’s current leadership is navigating a complex web of international relationships. While it remains unclear how valuable Damascus will regard Beijing in the context of reconstruction, any potential advantage is likely to be embraced by Sharaa, whose approach is guided by pragmatism.
Massoud Maalouf, a former Lebanese diplomat, believes that post-Ba’ath Syria will aim to avoid being drawn into great power competition. Syria is unlikely to become an enemy of Russia or the United States, but it may not form close alliances with either. The country seeks to maintain a delicate balance, avoiding being subjected to foreign influence or dragged back into violence.
Ultimately, Syria’s post-Assad realignment is more about survival than allegiance. It is navigating the fault lines of great power rivalry in pursuit of a fragile sovereignty.