The Wallabies’ Crucial Path to the 2027 World Cup
The dust has barely settled on a gruelling British and Irish Lions series, but the Wallabies are already preparing for a demanding schedule of 11 Tests that could shape the future of rugby in Australia. With the 2027 World Cup draw set for December, every match from now until then carries significant ranking points that can determine the team’s position in the tournament.
The success of the Matildas in reaching the semi-finals of the 2023 World Cup highlighted the power of strong home support, and the Wallabies have a chance to replicate that energy. However, this requires careful planning to ensure they progress safely through the knockout stages.
World Rugby Chief Executive Alan Gilpin has expressed confidence in the Wallabies’ potential, noting their growth and development over the next two years. He also acknowledged the unique atmosphere at the MCG during the second Test against the Lions, where he found himself cheering for the Wallabies despite being an Englishman.
Changes to the 2027 World Cup Format
The 2027 World Cup will see a shift from 20 to 24 teams, making it more competitive than ever. To secure a favorable path through the tournament, the Wallabies need to finish sixth or higher in the world rankings by the end of their spring tour. This would place them at the top of one of the six four-team pools, potentially avoiding powerhouse teams like South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, or France in the early knockout stages.
Currently, the Wallabies are in sixth place, but they are only just holding on. A mere 0.3 points separate them from Argentina, while Scotland is just 0.51 points behind. These close margins mean that any slip-up could jeopardize their World Cup prospects.
Understanding the Ranking System
To navigate the upcoming Tests effectively, it’s essential to understand how World Rugby calculates rankings. Each Test involves a points exchange, with one team gaining and the other losing points. The size of the gap between teams plays a major role—larger gaps mean more points can be lost. Conversely, a win against a much lower-ranked team, such as Japan, may not yield many ranking points.
Home advantage is also considered, with away victories typically earning more points. Wins by fewer than 15 points result in fewer points compared to larger margins. Additionally, teams can move up or down in the rankings without playing, depending on results from other teams.
Key Matches and Challenges
The Wallabies face several critical matches in the coming months. Their first challenge is a tough trip to South Africa, where they will play in Johannesburg and Cape Town. Despite being ranked five places below the Springboks, a narrow win could provide valuable ranking points, while a loss would have minimal impact.
Next, the Wallabies will take on Argentina in Townsville and Sydney. The Pumas are a direct threat to Australia’s sixth-place position, and a loss could leave them in a precarious spot. Securing two wins against Argentina is crucial for maintaining their ranking.
A showdown with New Zealand in Auckland and Perth will test the Wallabies further. Although the All Blacks are currently second in the rankings, a victory could bring significant points, especially if the margin is under 15 points.
The Return of Eddie Jones
Eddie Jones, the former Wallabies coach, will return to Japan, where his team faces a daunting challenge. A win over Japan offers minimal ranking points, while a loss under 15 points could cost the Wallabies valuable points. This match could have a major impact on their World Cup ambitions.
The Cold Reality of the Spring Tour
In November, the Wallabies will face England, Italy, Ireland, and France. While a loss to Italy could be costly, the Wallabies are expected to secure wins against these teams. Any victory under 15 points could add valuable ranking points, ensuring a top-six finish.
Conclusion
With the 2027 World Cup on the horizon, the Wallabies must navigate a challenging schedule with precision. Every Test is crucial, and maintaining a strong ranking is key to securing a favorable draw. As they prepare for the next phase of their journey, the team must remain focused, resilient, and strategic.