A New Era of Peace in the South Caucasus
Azerbaijan and Armenia are preparing for a significant diplomatic meeting with US President Donald Trump, which is expected to take place in Washington on Thursday and Friday. This peace summit could mark a turning point in the long-standing conflict between the two countries, offering hope for a lasting peace in the region.
After nearly four decades of intense conflict, Baku and Yerevan may finally reach an agreement that ends hostilities. Notably, this development comes as both countries move away from Moscow’s influence, signaling a shift in their foreign policy focus toward the West. The meeting at the White House would not only demonstrate their commitment to resolving their differences independently but also send a strong message to Russia about their growing autonomy.
This summit aligns with Trump’s broader strategy to position the United States as a key player in global conflict resolution. The timing of the meeting is particularly symbolic, as it coincides with Trump’s deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire. On this day, two of Russia’s former allies will be in Washington, potentially signing a historic peace agreement that could reshape regional dynamics.
The Zangezur Corridor: A Critical Issue
One of the central topics of discussion during the peace talks is the Zangezur Corridor. This proposed transport route aims to connect Azerbaijan’s mainland with its enclave, Nakhchivan, via Armenian territory. For Azerbaijan, the corridor represents a vital link to Turkey, strengthening economic ties and reinforcing its role as a key transportation hub.
However, Baku insists on maintaining full control over the corridor without involvement from the US, Europe, or Russia. This stance highlights its desire for independence in managing regional infrastructure and trade routes.
For Armenia, the corridor offers opportunities for economic revival and integration into broader trade networks. It could help diversify its economy and attract foreign investment. However, Yerevan is wary of losing sovereignty, fearing that the corridor might compromise its territorial integrity.
The 43-kilometre corridor through Syunik Province is strategically important not just for Azerbaijan and Armenia but for the entire region. Its success could have far-reaching implications, affecting geopolitical balances and trade flows.
US Involvement and Regional Tensions
Washington has shown interest in managing the Zangezur Corridor, aiming to facilitate uninterrupted cargo and passenger movement between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and beyond. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also emphasized the corridor’s significance for Turkey’s ambitions as an energy and trade hub.
However, this initiative has sparked opposition from Russia and Iran. Both countries view US involvement as a threat to their influence over north-south trade routes in the South Caucasus. For Iran, the corridor could diminish its leverage over northward trade by cutting off land access through Armenia.
Moreover, the corridor could expand Turkish influence and bring a direct US presence close to Iran’s borders, further complicating regional dynamics. For Moscow, this development signals the loss of its traditional stronghold in the South Caucasus.
A Shift Away from Russian Influence
Moscow has been gradually losing its grip on the South Caucasus, especially after Azerbaijan reclaimed control of the Karabakh region in September 2023. This event marked a major shift in the region’s power balance, as Baku and Yerevan took steps to normalize relations without Russian mediation.
Despite attempts by Moscow to repair ties with both countries, tensions remain high. Recent incidents, such as the Azerbaijani airline crash in Kazakhstan, have further strained relations. Investigations revealed that the plane was shot down by Russian air defense systems, leading to calls for justice from Baku.
Azerbaijan has announced plans to pursue legal action against Russia, drawing parallels to the Malaysian Airlines incident in Ukraine. This ongoing dispute underscores the deepening rift between the two nations.
Regional Power Vacuum and New Opportunities
As Azerbaijan and Armenia distance themselves from Russia, a power vacuum has emerged in the region, particularly on critical issues like the Zangezur Corridor. While this shift allows for more independent decision-making, it also presents challenges in reaching consensus.
This situation creates an opportunity for other countries and leaders to step in, facilitating diplomatic solutions while pursuing economic gains. The White House summit is a clear indication of how international actors are positioning themselves to shape the future of the South Caucasus.