A Historic Peace Summit in Washington
The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia are scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump for a peace summit in Washington on Thursday and Friday. This high-profile event could mark a significant step towards a long-anticipated peace deal between the two countries. After nearly four decades of conflict, Baku and Yerevan may finally reach an agreement that brings stability to the region. Notably, this peace process is unfolding away from Moscow, as both former Soviet South Caucasus nations move to distance themselves from Russian influence.
Holding such a meeting at the White House sends a strong message to Moscow about the commitment of these two countries to resolve their differences independently. It also signals a shift in their foreign policy focus towards the West. For Trump, this summit reinforces his broader goal of positioning the United States as a key player in global conflict resolution.
The timing of the summit is particularly significant. It coincides with Trump’s deadline for the Kremlin to agree to a ceasefire. On the same day, two of Russia’s former close allies will be in Washington, potentially signing a historic peace accord. This development could shake up the geopolitical landscape in the region.
The Zangezur Corridor: A Critical Issue
A major point of discussion during the summit is the Zangezur Corridor—a proposed transport route designed to connect Azerbaijan’s mainland with its enclave, Nakhchivan, via Armenian territory. This corridor would provide a direct land connection to Turkey, strengthening ties between Baku and Ankara. It also aims to consolidate post-war gains through infrastructure diplomacy, enhancing Azerbaijan’s position as a crucial transport and logistics hub globally.
For Azerbaijan, the corridor is essential for securing its control over the route without involvement from the US, Europe, or Russia. However, for Armenia, the corridor represents an opportunity to integrate into wider trade networks, diversify its economy, and attract foreign investment. Geopolitically, it could help Armenia normalize relations with its neighbors. Yet, Yerevan remains cautious, fearing that true “corridor” status might mean surrendering some authority.
The 43-kilometre corridor through Armenia’s Syunik Province holds strategic importance not only for Azerbaijan and Armenia but also for the entire region. This is where the US is stepping in, aiming to play a pivotal role in facilitating the peace process.
Washington’s Interests and Regional Opposition
The Armenian government has stated that the White House meeting aims to promote peace, prosperity, and economic cooperation in the region. Washington indeed has economic interests in the South Caucasus. Recently, the US offered to manage the Zangezur Corridor, which would create an uninterrupted land route for cargo and passenger flow between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and ultimately Europe and Asia.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emphasized the importance of the corridor for Turkey’s ambitions to become a significant energy and trade hub. However, the idea has faced strong opposition from Russia and Iran. For Moscow and Tehran, US involvement threatens their control over north-south trade through the South Caucasus. Iran could lose leverage over its northward trade if it loses access to the South Caucasus through Armenia.
Moreover, the corridor could expand Turkish influence and bring a direct US presence near Iran’s borders. For the Kremlin, this means losing the last bits of its influence in what used to be its stronghold region.
Moscow’s Former Allies
While Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, it has gradually lost influence in the South Caucasus, a region it once dominated. In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed full control of the Karabakh region after a military campaign, ending a decades-long conflict with Armenia. The Kremlin had played a central role in that conflict.
Almost two years later, Yerevan and Baku made history by agreeing on the text of a peace accord and normalizing their relations. Moscow has tried to repair its ties with both Baku and Yerevan, offering mediation and launching disinformation campaigns against Yerevan.
However, Russia’s attempts to rebuild relations with Baku were severely damaged when an Azerbaijani airliner crashed in Kazakhstan in December, killing 38 of 67 people aboard. Investigations revealed that the plane was shot at by Russian air defense systems over Grozny, rendering it uncontrollable through electronic warfare.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has announced plans to file lawsuits in international courts against Russia regarding the crash. He drew parallels to the Malaysian airline Boeing case, which was shot down by Russian militants over Ukraine. Aliyev emphasized that justice must prevail, even if it takes time.
Last month, another escalation occurred between Azerbaijan and Russia. Baku detained the executive director and editor-in-chief of Russia’s state-run news agency Sputnik following raids by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) on the Azeri community in Yekaterinburg. Two people died, and 50 more were detained.
While distancing themselves from Russia has helped Armenia and Azerbaijan end their conflict, it has also created a power vacuum in the region, especially on critical issues like the Zangezur Corridor. This presents an opportunity for other countries and leaders to facilitate diplomatic compromise and make economic gains.