Europe’s Graduate Job Crisis: A Degree of Difference?

Does a university degree guarantee employment in Europe? Generally, the answer is yes. Across most European Union nations, those holding a university degree experience lower unemployment rates compared to the general population. However, a closer look reveals a more nuanced picture, with significant variations between countries.

The European Landscape: Unemployment Rates in 2024

In 2024, data encompassing EU member states, candidate countries, and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) members reveals a wide spectrum of unemployment rates. For the population aged 15-74, the rates ranged from a low of 2.6% in Czechia to a high of 11.4% in Spain. The average unemployment rate across the EU stood at 5.9%.

Several countries exceeded the EU average, including Greece (10.1%), Turkey (8.8%), Serbia (8.6%), and Finland and Sweden (both 8.4%). Conversely, nations like Poland (2.9%), Malta (3.1%), Germany (3.4%), Iceland (3.6%), and the Netherlands and Slovenia (both 3.7%) boasted unemployment rates below 4%.

Unemployment Among University Graduates: A Different Story?

When focusing specifically on university graduates, defined as those with tertiary education, the unemployment rates in 2024 varied from a low of 1.4% in Czechia and Poland to a high of 9.2% in Turkey. The EU average for this group was 3.8%.

Aside from Turkey, the highest unemployment rates among university graduates were found in Greece (7.3%), Spain (6.9%), Serbia (6.5%), and France (5%). This highlights that even with a degree, finding employment can be challenging in certain European countries.

The Unemployment Gap: Comparing Graduates to the General Population

A key metric for understanding the value of a university education is the “unemployment gap,” which compares unemployment rates between the general population and university graduates. In most countries, this gap is positive, indicating that graduates are less likely to be unemployed.

However, Turkey presents a notable exception. In 2024, it was the only country where the unemployment rate was higher for university graduates than for the overall population, with a difference of -0.4 percentage points. This unusual situation raises questions about the Turkish labour market and the value of higher education in that specific context.

In contrast, Spain recorded the largest positive gap, with an unemployment rate of 11.4% for the general population compared to 6.9% for university graduates – a difference of 4.5 percentage points. The EU average unemployment gap was 2.1 percentage points (5.9% vs. 3.8%).

Ratios Tell the Tale: A Comparative Approach

To provide a clearer comparison between countries, the ratio between the unemployment rate of the general population and that of university graduates is a valuable tool. A ratio below 1 suggests a higher unemployment rate among the tertiary-educated, while a ratio above 1 indicates the opposite. The higher the ratio, the greater the advantage for university graduates.

Turkey’s ratio stood at 0.96, the only country below 1. The EU average was 1.55, meaning that, on average, the unemployment rate among the general population in the EU is 55% higher than that of university graduates.

Other countries with relatively close unemployment rates between the two groups include Cyprus (1.23), Switzerland (1.26), Germany (1.31), and Denmark, the Netherlands, and Serbia (all 1.32).

Romania (2.84), Slovakia (2.65), Bulgaria (2.63), and Hungary (2.50) exhibited the highest ratios, indicating that university graduates in these countries enjoy significantly lower unemployment rates compared to the overall population.

Turkey: An Outlier Over Time

Looking back at data from 2004 to 2024, Turkey stands out as the sole country where university graduates have consistently faced higher unemployment rates than the general population. This phenomenon has occurred in 12 different years since 2011. No other country has recorded this even once during the entire period.

Furthermore, data suggests a narrowing unemployment gap between the tertiary-educated and the overall population within the EU, indicating a positive trend for graduates in most European countries.

The Turkish Paradox: A Boom in Graduates

In 2022, Turkey had one of the lowest shares of tertiary graduates in Europe. However, the country experienced a significant boom in university enrolment. In 2019, Turkey had the highest rate of university students relative to its population, exceeding double the EU average.

This rapid expansion of the university system was driven, in part, by a government policy to establish a university in every province. The number of public universities in Turkey has increased dramatically, leading to a substantial increase in the number of graduates entering the workforce.

The Consequences of Rapid Expansion

The rapid expansion of the university sector in Turkey has had unintended consequences. The quantity of tertiary-level graduates has grown faster than the number of jobs requiring a degree, eroding the traditional benefits of higher education, such as ease of employment and higher wages. This has led to an extreme decline in labour-market returns for graduates, particularly in terms of unemployment rates.

Experts suggest that the focus should shift to prioritising the quality of tertiary education and ensuring that courses are relevant to the needs of the labour market. There appears to be a significant gap between the skills demanded by employers and the skills acquired by students in Turkish universities. In particular, there is a relatively low share of graduates in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) subjects. Addressing these issues is crucial to improving the employment prospects of university graduates in Turkey.