Texas Flood: Missed Warnings and a Deadly Timeline

The devastating flash flood that ripped through the Guadalupe River area over the July Fourth weekend has left Texas officials facing scrutiny regarding their preparedness and response efforts. The disaster claimed the lives of at least 120 individuals, including numerous children and counselors at Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian summer camp. Over 170 people remain missing, a week after the catastrophic event.

In the aftermath, state, federal, and Kerr County authorities have been pressed with questions regarding the warnings and preparations made before the flood. Many of these questions remain unanswered, leaving the public seeking clarity on the timeline of events and the decisions made leading up to the tragedy.

Here’s a reconstruction of the timeline, pieced together from official documents, social media posts, eyewitness accounts, and archived scanner traffic:

July 2nd: Activation and Approval

• The Texas Division of Emergency Management activated state emergency response resources in anticipation of potential flooding in regions of West and Central Texas.
• State inspectors approved Camp Mystic’s emergency protocol on the same day.

July 3rd: Warnings and Communication Gaps

• 10:00 AM: County judges and city mayors were invited to a daily call to discuss weather forecasts. A regional coordinator contacted local officials in the affected area. According to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, the responsibility to evacuate rested with the local counties and mayors.
• However, Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring stated that he was unaware of the state emergency management resources deployed in advance and did not receive a phone call.
• 1:18 PM: The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Austin/San Antonio issued a flood watch, predicting rainfall of 2.5 to 7.6 centimeters, with isolated amounts reaching 12.7 to 17.8 centimeters for parts of south-central Texas, including Kerr County. The alert cautioned that “Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers.”

July 4th: The Night of the Flood

• 1:14 AM: Based on radar data, the NWS issued a flash flood warning for central Kerr County, effective until 4:15 AM, emphasizing the life-threatening nature of the situation.
• 3:00 AM – 3:30 AM: Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice observed the river trail and reported that “everything was fine.”
• Rice stated that the rapid and intense rainfall in an isolated location created an unpredictable and dangerous event, even with radar and NWS warnings. He compared the situation to a sudden event, unlike tornadoes or hurricanes where there is usually more advance warning.
• 3:00 AM – 5:00 AM: Floodwaters began to engulf Camp Mystic. Campers, counselors, and staff were awakened and forced to evacuate to higher ground. Some girls had to escape through cabin windows. One staff member reported being on a roof with water rising toward her at 4:00 AM.
• 3:30 AM: Erin Burgess, residing in Bumble Bee Hills, was awakened by thunder. Within thirty minutes, floodwaters rushed into her home. Burgess and her son clung to a tree for an hour before the water receded.
• 3:35 AM: The NWS extended the flash flood warning for central Kerr County until 7:00 AM, based on radar and automated gauges.
• 3:35 AM: A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge on the Guadalupe River, located approximately 8 kilometers north of Camp Mystic, recorded the river level at nearly 4.9 meters, exceeding the flood stage of 3 meters.
• 4:00 AM – 5:00 AM: Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha was notified of the situation by one of his sergeants.
• 4:00 AM: Kerrville police officers encountered rising floodwaters and people needing rescue. One sergeant found himself trapped “on an island that was Hunt, Texas,” witnessing dozens of people stranded on roofs and in swift-moving water.
• For thirteen hours, the sergeant, a detective, volunteer firefighters, and an emergency room doctor worked to rescue, evacuate, and treat the injured until additional emergency responders arrived.
• Officers in Kerrville rescued and evacuated hundreds of people from low-lying areas near the river, using innovative methods, including a garden hose, to reach those in danger.
• 4:00 AM: Water began pooling in Jane Towler’s family cabin in Hunt, south of the town center and approximately 8 kilometers north of Camp Mystic.
• 4:03 AM: The NWS declared a flash flood emergency for south-central Kerr County, emphasizing the “particularly dangerous situation” and urging people to seek higher ground immediately.
• 4:16 AM: Towler recorded a video of the rising floodwaters as she and her family sought refuge on the roof of their cabin.
• 4:35 AM: A USGS gauge on the Guadalupe River stopped transmitting data. The last recorded river level was 9 meters.
• 5:30 AM: Police officers alerted Matthew Stone and his neighbors in Kerrville to evacuate. Stone reported receiving no prior warning on his phone.
• 5:34 AM: The NWS reported a flash flood emergency extending from Hunt through Kerrville and Center Point, stating that a “large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River.”
• 5:38 AM – 6:19 AM: Individuals took to social media, specifically the Kerr County Sheriff’s Office Facebook page, to plead for assistance for family and friends trapped in flooded areas between Hunt and Ingram, including Bumble Bee Hills.
• 6:06 AM: The NWS extended the flash flood warning until 10:00 AM, noting reports of “major flooding” and water rescues along the Guadalupe.
• 6:45 AM: A USGS gauge in Kerrville recorded the Guadalupe River peaking at 10.45 meters, the third-highest level recorded at that location.
• 6:59 AM: Burgess observed the receding floodwaters in her home, noting the high-water mark on her kitchen cabinets.
• 7:24 AM: The NWS extended the flash flood emergency to the community of Sisterdale.
• 7:32 AM: The emergency management agency in Kendall County issued mandatory evacuation orders for people along the Guadalupe River in Comfort.
• 9:34 AM: A rescue boat evacuated several people from a home on Carolyn Road in Comfort.
• 10:31 AM: Water levels were reported to be rising in Kendall County. Units were dispatched to assess the water level at a bridge over Cypress Creek in Comfort.
• 10:52 AM: Comfort activated its flood sirens as a final measure to evacuate residents near the Guadalupe River.
• 10:56 AM: A team was requested to contact management and advise evacuation at the Bergheim Campground in Boerne, near Guadalupe River State Park.
• 11:29 AM: Camp Mystic parents received an email stating that the camp had experienced “catastrophic level floods” and was without essential utilities.
• 11:30 AM: Local officials held a news conference, where Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly stated that the county did not have a warning system and that officials did not anticipate the severity of the flood.
• 3:30 PM: Officials announced the initial death toll, with Lieutenant Governor Patrick reporting six to ten bodies found and Sheriff Leitha reporting 13 deaths. Patrick also stated that the whereabouts of approximately 23 girls attending Camp Mystic were unknown.
• 7:11 PM: The Texas Game Wardens announced that its agents had entered Camp Mystic and were evacuating the campers to safety.
• 9:00 PM: Governor Greg Abbott signed a disaster declaration. Sheriff Leitha reported approximately 24 fatalities.

The events surrounding the flash flood raise critical questions about the effectiveness of the warning systems, the communication between state and local officials, and the overall preparedness for such a catastrophic event. The investigation into these aspects continues as the community grapples with the aftermath of this tragedy.